Saturday, November 08, 2008

The Election by the Numbers

It really wasn't all that close. At least in comparison to past elections. Obama got 53% of the vote. That is the first time a Democrat has gotten over 50% of the vote since Jimmy Carter back 1976. Obama won in every age group except for people over 65.

Eight states switched sides from 2004. Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Only one state is still outstanding Missouri where McCain is ahead by 5,859 out of a total of almost 2.9 million votes.

McCain spent all that time in Pennsylvania yet he lost the state by 11%. Not even close. It makes you wonder what the McCain campaign saw that made them think the state could possible go their way. This was one if the few places that the Republican National Committee ran ads about Rev. Wright. Probably in retrospect not a particularly smart move.

I was surprised that Ohio went for Obama. And further surprised by the margin of 200,000. Once that was called which was around 9:30 it was only a matter of time i.e. the polls closing in the west before Obama would win.

Virginia which was close for most of the night finally was called for Obama. But again the final results were not all that close. Again Obama won by 200,000 votes. I think in the future Virginia is going to be in play. There have been two straight Democrats as governor (in Virginia the governor can only be in office for one term). There are now two Democratic senators and it went for the Democratic presidential candidate as well. It shows the huge shift towards the Democratic taken place in the suburbs around Washington, DC.

Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are states that have been put in play too. Or better put are no longer sure Republican states. And, you have to think that if McCain had not been on the ballot in Arizona, Arizona would be in play too.

I think the Republicans have to be worried about how things will play for them in the future. Of course one election does not make a trend but places long considered Republican were in play and that should give some pause. It means the Republicans have to fight on their own turf instead of taking the battle to states that usually vote for the Democrats. It also mean the number of toss up states has expanded. And that in the long run is a good thing.

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